Current Daily Review (January 16)
< I > spot aspect
Steel market prices are generally stable.
< 2 > Futures
RB2005 main contract:
Day small increase and decrease position, tail position to 11340 hands, within the day between 3535 and 3577 strong shock, tail close 3565. The main organization has a net increase of 20398 hands per day.
HC2005 main contract:
Small increase and decrease of positions within the day, end of the position to 4200 hands, within the day
Strong concussion between 3570 and 3616, tail 3591. The main organization has a net increase of 2546 hands per day.
Iron ore i2005 main contract:
Within the day significantly increase and decrease positions, tail positions to 9035 hands, within the day between 670.5 to 656.5 shock downward, the end of 658.5. The main organization has a net increase of 7894 hands per day.
The main contract of J2005:
Day small reduction, tail reduction to 5924 hands, within the day between 1847 and 1869.5 horizontal concussion, the end of 1857.5. The main organization within the day clearance single 683 hands.
Coking coal JM2005 main contract:
Within the day a small increase in positions, tail positions to 7067 hands, within the day between 1209 to 1228 shock uplink, the end of 1224.5. The main organization within the day clearance single 240 hands.
< 3 > current forecast for tomorrow:
1. Spot: smooth theme.
2. Futures:
RB2005 main contract: concussion between 3480 and 3600.
HC2005 main contract: concussion between 3520 and 3630.
Iron ore L2005 main contract: between 650 and 675 shocks.
Demon coke J2005 main contract: concussion between 1830 and 1900.
Coking coal JM2005 contract: concussion between 1180 and 1230.
< IV > current operation suggestions.
1. Spot: rest.
2. Futures:
RB2005 main contract: short rhythm range short trading mainly (light position participation).
HC2005 main contract: short rhythm range short trading mainly (light position participation).
Iron ore l2005 main contract: short rhythm range within the high altitude, low suction operation is appropriate. Stop the profit and stop the loss in time.
Demon coke J2005 main contract: within the range of high altitude, low suction operation is appropriate. Timely stop profit stop loss is the best policy.
Coking coal JM2005 main contract: short rhythm wait-and-see or interval partial air operation, timely stop profit stop loss.
< 5 > Heart language and information.
1. Liu he and Trump formally sign the first stage Economic and Trade Agreement between China and the United States
[abstract] January 15, White House, Washington. Liu he, member of the political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee, vice premier of the State Council, and Chinese leader of the China-US Comprehensive Economic Dialogue, signed the first phase of the Sino-US economic and trade agreement with US President Donald Trump. At this point, Sino-US economic and trade frictions to achieve a phased "stop war", a practical step forward in the direction of the final settlement of the problem.
On the afternoon of January 15, local time, Liu he, member of the political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee, vice premier of the State Council, and Chinese leader of the China-US Comprehensive Economic Dialogue, formally signed the first phase of the Sino-US economic and trade agreement at the White House with US President Donald Trump, according to CCTV news. Liu he said: proceeding from the overall situation, China and the United States face up to their differences, manage their differences, and reach the first stage of economic and trade agreement, which is beneficial to China, the United States, and the whole world.
2. Yang Ma transmission:
The amount of new special bonds issued in January exceeded 700 billion.
[China's social financing increased by 2.1 trillion yuan in December and new RMB loans by 1.14 trillion yuan]
China's social financing increased by 2.1 trillion yuan in December, with an expected 1.65 trillion yuan, up from a previous value of 1.75 trillion yuan. China added 1.14 trillion yuan in yuan loans in December, up from an estimated 1.2 trillion yuan, up from 1.39 trillion yuan.
[from December 2019, "treasury bonds" and "local government general bonds" will be included in the statistics of social financing scale, and the original "local government special bonds" will be merged into the index of "government bonds".
3. [the warning of heavy pollution weather in Wuan iron and steel enterprises was upgraded to red] from 8: 00 on January 16 to 8: 00 on the 22nd, the emergency strengthening control measures were implemented on the basis of grade II (orange) emergency response of heavy pollution weather. Iron and steel enterprises upgraded to level I (red) early warning, from 12:00 to 12:00 on the 16th to 12:00 on the 19th, the sintering machine stopped production (with the thermal production enterprises to minimize the production load on the basis of ensuring heating), and the pellets ceased production; coking enterprises continued to extend the coking time for 48 hours.
4. Price adjustment of Sangang: from 00:00 on January 16, 2020, the straight bar thread of building materials will be reduced by 50 yuan / ton, the wire rod and plate snail will be reduced by 100 yuan / ton, and the guide price will be implemented from 00:00 on January 16, 2010. 3900 / high line 3950 / disc snail 4050, the first rate of discount is adjusted to 2.7 ‰.
5. Sunrise interpretation of inventory data.
The inventory of the five major varieties has been extended: the total output has been reduced by 77500 tons to 9.914 million tons (9.7219 million tons in the same period and the same as on January 18). Total inventory increased by 1.3912 million tons to 15.0711 million tons (13.4941 million tons to the warehouse during the same period).
Rebar: production has been greatly reduced by 234100 tons to 3.1246 million tons (3.2113 million tons in the same period last year). The factory and warehouse increased by 11.95 to 2.3487 million tons, and the social warehouse inventory increased by 822100 tons to 4.956 million tons, bringing the total inventory to 7.3047 million tons (5.814 million tons to the warehouse in the same period).
Hot rolling: production increased by 135200 tons to 3.4233 million tons (3.2097 million tons in the same period last year). Factory inventory slightly increased by 8200 tons to 871100 tons, social inventory increased by 130500 tons to 1.8636 million tons, the total inventory increased to 2.7347 million tons (2.7994 million tons in the same period last year).
Sunrise interpretation of inventory data:
The speed of the five major varieties of softbank is too fast, which is about 1.6 million tons higher than that of the same period last year. Even if we consider that the Spring Festival this year is 10 days ahead of schedule, it is still higher than the same period last year. In short, pessimistic interpretation!
Rebar: although the total inventory increase is too fast, but consider a sharp drop in production (mainly due to the arc furnace shutdown to speed up), the follow-up further decline is a high probability event! Neutral deviation interpretation!
Hot rolling: screw coil profit difference drive, output infatuation in! Pessimistic interpretation!
6. After looking at the spot price after the festival, the probability of making up and falling after the festival is large.
7. Raw material end.
The coke is stable. The fourth round to raise the game before the high probability is difficult to land!
The spot price of iron ore is stable, same as yesterday; the number of days available for steel mills to import mines has jumped to 38 days, and the life of replenishing inventory before the festival has come to an end.
The enthusiasm of blast furnace production is little disturbed by the Spring Festival, the demand for iron ore after the festival is safe and the supply side is expected to converge. The disk of the mine is greatly disturbed by funds, but the downward space is limited.
8. Short rhythm of steel by capital emotional disturbance is greater, behind the base speed, small rhythm adjustment is inevitable (the author's forward-looking language, target position 3450), the practice of the author's forward-looking proponents (3620 empty list) hold. Short rhythm partial empty a small number of transactions, do not be covered by the disk eyes! The trend is still waiting!
With Tuesday, Wednesday heart language and information.
1. Bloomberg: the agreement has been signed. But the US will continue to maintain a 25 per cent tariff of 250 billion until the November election. Another 120 billion of the tariff was reduced from 15% to 7.5%, while canceling the original plan of 12.15 to impose 15% on 160 billion.
2. The prime minister called for the early start of the first quarter of the project, and the provinces have laid out this year's infrastructure roadmap.
3. According to SMM tracking data, a total of 87 ships arrived at China's main ports from 1.5 to 1.11, with an estimated arrival volume of 14.18 million tons, an increase of 300000 tons over the previous period. During the period, Australia was affected by strong winds and heavy rainfall, the current period of departure from Hong Kong decreased by 2.61 million tons to 10.78 million tons, down 3.57 million tons from the same period last year. Brazilian departure is expected to fall 1.22 million tons from the previous month to 4.06 million tons, down 3.64 million tons from the same period last year. The supply end of iron ore continues to shrink, and the price of imported ore continues to rise but not fall.
4. The spot basically steps into "hibernation", sells the broken winter storage to enter the end.
5. Pay attention to the sunrise of today's inventory data, especially the speed of the base.
6. Pay attention to the sunrise of real estate data, especially the growth rate of new construction area.
7. The main elements of pre-festival steel disturbance are still weekly evaluation logic: base library speed, Sino-US signature specific content, real estate data, capital mood, pre-festival insurance. Light warehouse participation is recommended!
In short, concussion is still the main theme!
8. Coke fourth round rise is still in the game, most steel mills are still silent! The weather in the direction of Shanxi is improving and the spot is stable.
High demand for iron ore in 2019, supply-side convergence continued, Shandong direction 680 yuan / bar, Tangshan direction 695 yuan / ton; after the festival to replenish inventory, Australia Guar Hurricane Damocles sword hanging. In short, it is easy to rise but not to fall!
With Tuesday's heart language and information.
1. General Administration of Customs and Excise:
[4.575 million tons of steel exported in December 2019] according to the data of the General Administration of Customs on January 14, 2020, China exported 4.684 million tons of steel in December 2019, an increase of 109000 tons over the previous month, down 15.8% from the same period last year. From January to December, China exported 64.293 million tons of steel, down 7.3 percent from the same period last year. In December, China imported 1.483 million tons of steel, an increase of 441000 tons over the previous month, an increase of 46.8 percent over the same period last year. From January to December, China imported 12.304 million tons of steel, down 6.5 percent from the same period last year.
[in December 2019, China imported 101.303 million tons of iron ore and its concentrate and exported 767000 tons of coke.] according to the data of the General Administration of Customs on January 14, 2020, China imported 101.303 million tons of iron ore and its concentrate in December, an increase of 10.651 million tons over the previous month, an increase of 16.9 percent over the same period last year. From January to December, China imported 1.068949 billion tons of iron ore and its concentrate, an increase of 0.5 percent over the same period last year. In December, China exported 767000 tons of coke, an increase of 444000 tons over the previous month, down 31.5 percent from the same period last year. From January to December, China exported 6.523 million tons of coke, down 33.1 percent from the same period last year.
Explanation: total imports for the whole of 2019 were 0.5 per cent higher than last year. On the contrary, total port inventories at the end of December were 15 million tons lower than at the end of December last year. High demand hammered in 2019! It is estimated that there is no doubt about the extension of high demand in 2020!
2. In terms of material end, the meaning of leaving the market is strong, the vast majority of traders left the market this week. The spot pattern is calm and difficult to move.
Futures are disturbed by the logic of weekly review, do not repeat, see weekly review for details.
3. Raw material end.
The scrap steel leaves the market on the whole.
Although the fourth round of coke rise has expanded, but most steel mills are still silent. The author's point of view remains unchanged: it is difficult to land before the Spring Festival.
Iron ore, this spot stable in the strong.
The term mine is based on the author's forward-looking logic is easy to rise but not fall, but substantially upward by the period of steel suppression. Before the festival, the author is the most optimistic forecast of 715. In a word, before the festival, many times meet the high end of the field, fall the bag for the peace of the United States!
< 6 > short rhythm and trend analysis and views are detailed in the weekly review (January 10) and the monthly review of "more joy and sorrow" on November 29.
Details consultant Lu Qingping 021-51595781
(disclaimer: this article is exclusively produced and published by the author under the exclusive authorization of SMM Iron and Steel, and may not be reproduced without authorization)
